Would Israel and Lebanon Likely Make Peace Without Hezbollah?
The question of whether peace could be established between Israel and Lebanon without Hezbollah is a complex one, deeply rooted in the historical and political context of the region. This article examines the historical events leading to the current situation and analyzes potential scenarios.
Historical Context and Contextual Factors
Lebanon, once a popular Mediterranean beach destination attracting wealthy tourists, has dramatically transformed over the years. The major turning point came when Palestinian refugees sought refuge in Lebanon. This influx changed the demographic and political dynamics of the country, leading to significant challenges and conflicts.
Before the arrival of the Palestinian refugees, Lebanon was a predominantly Christian nation. The presence of Palestinians, however, turned Beirut into a site of violence, crime, and insecurity, tarnishing its former reputation as a welcoming and safe destination.
Today, the region is characterized by instability, with Jordan and Egypt among others having little tolerance for Palestinian refugees. A similar fate would be met by any refugee caravan seeking entry through Iran, a stark reflection of the region's current stance against large-scale refugee movements.
The Role of Hezbollah and Israeli Occupations
Despite the absence of Hezbollah, the Israeli-Lebanon conflict has persisted due to Israeli actions and ambitions. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 was prompted by the presence of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). Even after the PLO left in 1984, Israel maintained its occupation until 2000, demonstrating a clear lack of willingness to end the conflict.
Hezbollah emerged in 1985 with the primary objective of ousting Israeli forces from Lebanon. Given this background, it is crucial to understand that the Israeli presence in Lebanon was not only a response to the PLO but also an act of aggression towards Lebanese sovereignty.
Several incidents, including Israel's invasion of Lebanon, its installation of a puppet president in 1982, and its continued occupation of 10% of Lebanese territory, further entrenched the hostility between the two countries. Israel's actions have included stealing and occupied Palestinian lands and practicing apartheid, significantly eroding trust and cooperation.
The Hypothetical Scenario: No Hezbollah
The question of whether Israel and Lebanon would make peace if Hezbollah were to suddenly disappear reveals deep-rooted mutual distrust and a history of aggression. Israel's fear of breaching Lebanese sovereignty is a key deterrent, as Hezbollah serves as a deterrence against such actions.
Without Hezbollah, Israel might feel emboldened to breach Lebanese sovereignty more frequently. Potential actions include:
Israel might seek to control the Shebaa Farms, a disputed region claimed by both Lebanon and Syria. Israel could enforce its own maritime borders, potentially leading to direct conflicts with Lebanese territorial claims. Israel might use Lebanese airspace and land for strategic operations over Syria, complicating the geopolitical landscape.Ultimately, the absence of Hezbollah would remove a significant barrier, possibly leading Israel to engage more assertively in Lebanese territory. However, the trust and cooperation required for peace would still be absent, making a lasting peace deal unlikely.
Conclusion
In light of the historical context and current political dynamics, it can be concluded that Israel and Lebanon would not likely make peace if Hezbollah were removed from the picture. The underlying tensions and past grievances would continue to hinder any progress towards a lasting agreement. The role of Hezbollah in deterring Israeli aggression is crucial, and its absence could lead to increased hostilities and a resurgence of past conflicts.