Will the Next Government Create Higher Employment if Elected?
This question has been particularly pertinent in the context of the ongoing political climate in India, where the success of the current Modi government in generating employment remains under scrutiny. Despite India’s economic resilience, employment issues persist, raising questions about the ability of different political entities to improve the job market. This article delves into the performance of previous governments and analyzes the potential of a future Congress-led government to improve employment rates.
Employment Challenges and Prior Government Performance
Employment loss in India, particularly since the implementation of the Modi government's economic policies such as demonetization and the ill-timed introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), has been a significant concern. These measures, while aimed at combating black money and improving the tax system, inadvertently created employment challenges. For instance, the misuse of demonetization and the lack of proper planning in the Implementation of GST led to businesses struggling and potentially resulted in job losses.
However, it is essential to contextualize these challenges within the larger framework of India’s economic history. Between 2005 and 2010, India faced a global economic downturn and witnessed a significant loss of jobs, even amidst growing economic investments. The UPA (United Progressive Alliance) rule period, despite allegations of corruption, saw a marked improvement in the economy, with robust job generation in various sectors including corporates and the unorganized sector.
The Skill Gap and Long-Term Job Growth
The skill shortage among graduates remains a critical challenge for the development of a robust job market in India. Recognizing this gap, the Skill India initiative was launched with the aim of fostering skill development programs. This has been complemented by the Startup India program and the Mudra Scheme. While these measures are beneficial in the long term, they focus on creating a pliable workforce that can adapt to new economic demands and support entrepreneurship. Nevertheless, these initial stages of growth are typically characterized by low job creation and may take 3-5 years to start mass hiring.
It is important to note that the job growth from such initiatives is expected to materialize within a period of 4 to 7 years. This timeline underscores the necessity of patient and sustained efforts aimed at skill development and entrepreneurship, rather than immediate job creation.
The Potential of a Congress Government
With the upcoming election, there is intense scrutiny on the Congress party and its leader Rahul Gandhi. Critics argue that the Congress party is no different from previous governments, characterized by potential for increased corruption and failure to support key sectors like the tiny sector. The demonetization and faulty implementation of GST, which resulted in over 1.5 million jobs being lost, were deemed significant setbacks by the Congress party.
While it is undeniable that corruption and economic mismanagement can hinder employment, it is crucial to consider that job creation is inherently challenging in a large, overpopulated country like India. The complexity of the issue requires an integrative approach that includes policy reforms, investment in education and skill development, and a conducive business environment. Simply expecting a single party to solve these longstanding issues may not be practical.
It is important to recognize that while a Congress government might face unique challenges, it also has the potential to implement policies aimed at fostering economic growth. The key lies in transparency, accountability, and policy coherence, which are necessary to address the multifaceted issue of employment in India.
Conclusion
The future of employment in India depends on a combination of factors, including macroeconomic policy, entrepreneurial spirit, and governance. While the modus operandi of the current BJP government has caused job losses, it is equally crucial to consider the potential of other parties, including the Congress, in creating a conducive environment for job creation. Whether the next government will be able to achieve higher employment rates depends on a range of factors, from skill development and entrepreneurship to the broader economic strategy.
Key Takeaways:
The implementation of economic policies such as demonetization and faulty GST by the current government has had unintended consequences on governments, including the UPA, have shown that economic resilience and job generation are possible even amidst corruption growth initiatives like Skill India and Startup India aim to tackle the skill gap and support entrepreneurship, but the outcomes may not be complexity of job creation highlights the necessity of sustained efforts, transparency, and policy coherence.