Will Modi Factor Continue to Influence BJP after 2019 General Election?
It is not merely about the Modi Factor. It is also about the dedication he has shown towards his country with his relentless efforts over the past five years. Anyone who evaluates his work in this tenure cannot ignore the impact he has created, which has never been equaled before. Therefore, if he continues with the same work ethic, Narendra Modi can very well become the Prime Minister again and again.
The 2014 General Election Triumph
Exactly five years ago, the Modi Phenomenon shocked many poll experts by leading the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power with the biggest single-party mandate in 30 years. This marked a significant shift as the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, which had ruled for ten years, was decisively defeated, with its tally in the Lok Sabha reduced to its lowest ever 44 seats.
The BJP won 282 seats, equating to a staggering 66 percent of the total seats. The party fielded candidates in 428 Lok Sabha constituencies. Critics dismissed the BJP's victory by stating that it received only 31 percent of the votes, implying that 69 percent of Indians were not in favor of the Modi government. However, the argument appears misplaced.
Understanding the 2014 Election Victory
No party had successfully formed a government by winning 31 percent of the vote since 1991. Two striking examples can be seen in the most populous state, Uttar Pradesh. In 2007, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) secured a clear majority with 30 percent of the votes, and in 2012, the Samajwadi Party (SP) also achieved similar success with 29 percent. In 2017, the BJP won 39.7 percent of the votes and formed the largest single-party government in 40 years in Uttar Pradesh, despite suffering a setback in the state-level elections. This underscores the pivotal role of the 2014 General Election in turning the tides for the BJP.
Key Factors Contributing to the BJP's Success
Several factors contributed to the BJP's victory in 2014:
1. Economic Performance
The Congress-led UPA government came to power in 2004 primarily on the back of a rural distress issue, which the BJP-led NDA government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee had failed to address. The economy had been on a positive trajectory before the 2009 Lok Sabha election, where the Manmohan Singh government introduced welfare schemes like MNREGA (Right to Work), the Right to Education Act, and massive farm loan waivers.
2. Anti-Corruption Drive
Corruption was a major issue for the UPA government heading into the 2014 Lok Sabha election. The government was battling various scams, including the Commonwealth Games scam, the 2G spectrum scam, the coal scam, the VIP chopper scam, and the cash-for-vote scam. The Anti-Corruption Movement, led by NGO India Against Corruption, mobilized the masses around the need for a Lokpal (ombudsman) and an RTI Act, creating a nationwide sentiment against the incumbent government.
3. Youth and Aspiration
During his 2014 Lok Sabha campaign, Modi emphasized the potential of the youth, calling on empowering them with employable skills and fostering a spirit of entrepreneurship. His campaign resonated with the electorate, as half of the 81 crore voters were under the age of 35.
4. Rise of the Right
The right-wing BJP, established in 1980, capitalized on the rising nationalist sentiment itself as a pro-Hindu party. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP successfully positioned itself as the alternative to the Congress, which was accused of appeasing Muslims. This narrative gained traction, especially as the economy slowed down and job opportunities diminished.
5. Brand Modi
The BJP, under Modi's leadership, was extremely strategic in managing every aspect of his campaign. Veteran parliamentarian and former party leader LK Advani was marginalized, and Modi emerged as the supreme leader. Professional teams were hired to manage his campaign, effectively utilizing modern technology. Live footage from all his rallies was streamed and widely telecasted for maximum impact.
The Legacy and Future Prospects
Under the leadership of Narendra Modi, the BJP has significantly fortified its position. With a proven track record of effective governance, functional majoritarianism, and a strong electoral mandate, the BJP aims to continue its dominance. The upcoming 2019 General Election will be crucial in determining whether the Modi Factor will continue to influence the BJP's success.
The effectiveness of the Modi Factor is a mixed bag, as it has helped mobilize a large segment of the electorate. However, the party must also address the socio-economic and political challenges that may arise.
As the nation gears up for a new election, the question remains: will the Modi Factor continue to resonate with the electorate? The answer may hinge on the party's ability to maintain a strong ideological platform, balance development and governance, and effectively address the aspirations of the people.
It will be fascinating to see whether the BJP, with the continued support and faith of the Indian public, can remain at the helm of the country once again.