Will Autonomous Cars and Buses Replace Intercity Passenger Rail?

If your current intercity passenger rail service leaves much to be desired, with only one train per day or at most four per day on several routes, you might be wondering if autonomous cars and buses will soon make it obsolescent. However, for railways to become a thing of the past, significant improvements must be made to current rail services. Only then can passengers truly consider alternative modes of travel, such as self-driving cars and buses.

Enhancing Passenger Rail Service

For railways to reclaim their place as a preferred mode of transportation, efforts must be made to modernize services and enhance convenience for passengers. This includes building high-speed rail (HSR) and increasing the frequency of services. Once a punctual and reliable alternative is available, autonomous vehicles can supplement these services rather than replace them. They will serve a complementary role, providing flexible options for short to medium-distance travel within and around urban centers.

Addressing the Limitations of Autonomous Cars and Buses

While autonomous cars and buses offer convenience and flexibility, they are not without their drawbacks. For instance, in areas where trains are fast, comfortable, and equipped with amenities, passengers cannot simply stop an autonomous bus or car for assistance if they need to.

In Europe, where rail travel is both robust and convenient, alternatives like buses lack the same appeal. Buses are often long and uncomfortable, and long-distance travel by bus is a tiresome experience. On a train, you can easily walk around or visit a cafe if you need to stretch your legs. However, with autonomous buses, passenger discomfort can escalate quickly, especially during emergencies.

Consider the scenario where a passenger on a long bus ride experiences a medical emergency. Without a driver, such incidents become much more challenging to handle. Moreover, if one passenger cannot hold it in, the situation can quickly spread to others and result in an unpleasant commute for all.

The Inefficiency of Replacing Rail with Cars

Autonomous cars and buses will not replace intercity rail. The sheer volume of passengers that railways handle and the regular schedules they maintain make them more efficient than private vehicles. Attempting to replace rail and bus traffic with personal cars would lead to significant traffic congestion, overwhelming highways, and significantly higher costs per passenger.

For instance, traveling from Philadelphia to Washington D.C. by train takes about 3 hours and costs approximately $65. Taking a personal car for this journey, including tolls and potential traffic, could also take around 4 hours, costing about $50. However, parking and maintenance costs would add to the overall expense, potentially making car travel less economical.

In situations where a train is not available, an Uber or other ride-hailing service is a convenient second option. On the other hand, traveling by bus could take 5–6 hours and cost around $50. The convenience and efficiency of trains, including direct access to city centers like Union Station, make them a preferred choice. In New York City, trains offer even more accessibility with connections to the subway and other local transport options.

The cost and convenience of traveling to New York City by train make it a much more viable option than by car, even with the potential for an autonomous car fleet.

Conclusion

Autonomous cars and buses will not replace intercity rail. They will serve a complementary role, catering to last-mile transportation needs and providing additional flexibility for personal travel. To truly replace intercity rail, significant improvements to rail services must be made to ensure they meet the needs of passengers.