Why So Many Believe They Can Write a Screenplay

Charles Bukowski, the renowned American writer, once famously remarked on the beliefs of many aspiring screenwriters. He observed, 'There is a problem with writers. If what a writer wrote was published and sold many, many copies, the writer thought he was great. If what a writer wrote was published and sold a medium number of copies, the writer thought he was great. If what the writer wrote was published and sold very few copies, the writer thought he was great. If what the writer wrote never was published and he didn’t have enough the money to publish it himself, then he thought he was truly great. The truth, however, was there was very little greatness. It was almost nonexistent, invisible.' Despite Bukowski’s insights, the belief among many that they can write a screenplay persists, driven by factors including the Dunning-Kruger effect and the appeal of the craft itself.

Overestimation of Capabilities: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

The Dunning-Kruger effect, identified by David Dunning and Justin Kruger, is a cognitive bias in which individuals with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. Many aspiring screenwriters fall into this trap, believing that their creative vision or initial drafts are superior. This belief is exacerbated by the low barrier to entry: all that one needs is a computer and a story to pen down. The screenwriting community and online forums often perpetuate optimism, further convincing novices that they can achieve success with relative ease. However, as Charles Bukowski lamented, true greatness and success in screenwriting are rare.

Challenges in Writing and Evaluating a Screenplay

Writing a screenplay is a complex and demanding process that goes far beyond simply penning lines. Many believe they can do it simply because they have an idea or a concept, unaware of the nuances involved. The process from conception to final script is riddled with difficulties:

Obtaining a Script: Scripts, particularly for famous movies or TV shows, are often guarded and not easily accessible. Acquiring a copy to study can be challenging, but even then, evaluating a screenplay requires a deep understanding of the filmmaking process. What is written on the page is not always what makes it to the screen or to the theater. A script’s quality is only truly evaluated when it moves through the development, production, and post-production stages. Commercial Appeal: The storyline must be compelling, which is subjective and often requires market research. Even the best-written scripts face the challenge of market appeal, as only a fraction of them find commercial success. Funding and Success: The success of a movie is not always guaranteed. According to industry estimates, between 50-80% of movies lose money. Even scripts that professionals deems good enough to green-light often do not meet these financial expectations. True success in the film industry is often far from within reach for most.

The Dream of the Writer’s Brotherhood

Additionally, many screenwriters seek a sense of community or camaraderie, often craving a kind of screenwriting brotherhood. This desire for connection is not inherently negative but can lead to a false sense of confidence. Success in screenwriting is a solitary endeavor, and without the necessary skills and experience, aspiring screenwriters may find little to no success, despite their best efforts. The feeling of being a part of a larger community can be both a blessing and a curse, fostering a belief in one’s own capabilities that may not be supported by reality.

Conclusion: Reality Check for Aspiring Screenwriters

While the dream of writing a screenplay is an appealing one, it is essential to approach the process with realistic expectations. The belief that one can write a successful screenplay is common but misguided, largely stemming from the Dunning-Kruger effect and the allure of communal support. For those serious about pursuing this path, meticulous screenwriting courses, mentorship, and experience are crucial. Understanding the challenges and conducting thorough research will provide a clearer picture of the realities of screenwriting and increase the chances of success.