Introduction

The decision of the United Kingdom to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016 has been one of the most debated political events in decades. Many argue that had key factors been different, the UK might have avoided triggering Brexit. This article explores the implications of such a hypothetical scenario, examining the potential benefits and drawbacks of remaining in the EU.

The Incompatibility of UK Law with EU Law

The foundational basis of UK law is distinct from that of the EU. The UK follows a Common Law system, while the EU operates under Napoleonic (Civil) law. This fundamental divergence in legal systems would have eventually led to a situation where the UK's ability to harmonize laws with the EU would have become increasingly difficult. Over time, the process of aligning laws would likely have become more contentious, potentially leading to a prolonged and acrimonious period of negotiations and legal disputes that could have strained the relationship between the UK and the EU.

Risks and Benefits of Remaining in the EU

Had the UK chosen to remain in the EU, the advantages and disadvantages would have been significant. The economic benefits of EU membership, such as the free movement of goods, services, and people, would have continued to contribute to the UK's prosperity. The UK would have retained the ability to influence EU policies and contribute to the development of European standards. Conversely, there would have been ongoing challenges related to cultural differences, particularly in legal and judicial systems.

The 2016 Referendum: A Narrow Margin and Influential Factors

The outcome of the 2016 referendum was indeed close, with a margin of just 2 percentage points. A shift of 2% in either direction could have resulted in a significantly different outcome. Several key factors could have influenced the result, including a more transparent and honest campaign and the inclusion of younger voters who were more pro-EU.

Firstly, a more truthful and transparent campaign on the side of the 'Remain' side would have addressed the misleading claims made during the 'Leave' campaign, such as the often-cited ￡350 million weekly contribution to the NHS being an inaccurate figure. A more honest and evidence-based approach would have likely resonated more with voters, potentially turning some undecided voters in favor of remaining in the EU.

Secondly, the inclusion of 16 and 17-year-olds in the referendum would have added a vocal pro-EU demographic to the voting population. Younger voters tend to have a more favorable view of the EU due to their lack of personal memories of the UK's pre-EU years. With this group added to the voting pool, the outcome of the referendum would have been much closer.

The Role of Media and Expertise

The media played a significant role in shaping public opinion leading up to the referendum. However, the tabloid press, often focusing on sensationalism rather than factual information, may have contributed to a skewed understanding of the EU and its impact. A more balanced and factual coverage by the media could have influenced public opinion in favor of remaining in the EU. Additionally, David Cameron, the then-Prime Minister, should have been more transparent in his communications about the potential economic and political repercussions of leaving the EU.

The UK's position as a net contributor to the EU budget is often cited as a reason to leave. However, this perspective is nuanced. While the UK does contribute significantly, it also benefits from other EU programs and does not necessarily contribute more per capita than other EU countries. Moreover, the UK's trade surpluses in services to the rest of the Single Market have been a strong economic argument for remaining in the EU.

In conclusion, the hypothetical scenario of the UK not triggering Brexit shows that the decision to leave the EU was not solely driven by a simple yes or no vote. A more honest and evidence-based campaign, along with greater public engagement, could have altered the outcome of the referendum. The potential benefits of continued membership, including the economic and social advantages, would have been better preserved.