The Warmest Decade Myths Debunked: Historical Records and Climate Data Analysis
Recently, there has been much discussion and debate about whether the last five years have been the warmest on record. However, based on the historical and climate data analysis, such claims are quite inaccurate. Let's dive into the facts and explore why the period of the 1930s stands out as being the warmest in modern history.
Historical Records and Climate Data Analysis
The New York Times reported that the warmest year on record for the modern era was 1995. Both NASA and the British Met Office released their values for the year, showcasing that the average temperature in 1995 was 58.7 degrees Fahrenheit according to the British data, 0.7 of a degree higher than the previous record established in 1990. The British figures, based on land and sea measurements around the world, represent one of the two sets of long-term data by which surface temperature trends are being tracked. The other maintained by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York shows the average 1995 temperature at 59.7 degrees, slightly ahead of 1990 as the warmest year since 1866. However, the difference is within the margin of sampling error, and the two years essentially finished neck and neck.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the year 2016 was 58.69°F, highlighting that there is no factual evidence supporting the claim that recent years have been the warmest on record. Historical records and climate data reveal that the 1930s were the warmest decade in modern history, with the past several hundred years at least in US data. The US data, being the most comprehensive and accurate, is possibly the better representation of global temperatures than data from most other countries, due to the vast amount of missing temperature data in these regions.
The 1930s: The Peak of Warmth
Noah Pinazos and colleagues at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have confirmed that the majority of record warm days in the US occurred before 1940, while the majority of record cold days occurred after 1970. The hottest temperature ever recorded in the US was 134°F on July 10, 1913, at Greenland Ranch in CA. Only 2 states experienced their hottest temperatures after 1996! This data clearly indicates that the warmest periods in the US were centered around the 1930s.
Analyses of heat wave data from the Climate Change Indicators: High and Low Temperatures report by the US EPA show interesting trends. The figure below illustrates the annual values of the US Heat Wave Index from 1895 to 2015, covering the contiguous 48 states. While the claim of recent years being the hottest is widely used, the data reveals that more days over 95°F during the 1930s than during the current decade. Similarly, there were more days over 100°F in the 1930s than in the past years. July 1936, 1934, and 1901 recorded more days over 105°F, 100°F, and 95°F than any July after 1936. These statistics challenge the notion that recent years have been the hottest on record.
Conclusion
The historical records and climate data conclusively indicate that the 1930s were the warmest decade in modern history. While climate change and increasing industrial CO2 levels are undoubtedly relevant factors, the evidence points to earlier periods being equally or even more significant in terms of warmth. The comprehensive and accurate US temperature data serves as a more reliable proxy for global temperature trends, reinforcing the importance of 1930s as the warmest period.
Furthermore, there is evidence suggesting that there were periods in the past 2000 years which were as warm or warmer than those of the 20th and 21st century, such as the Medieval Warm Period. Understanding this historical context is crucial for meaningful climate change discussions and data-driven policy-making.
Keywords: warmest year on record, medieval warm period, 1930s temperature