The Probability of Life Starting by Chance: A Quantum Perspective
Scientists and creationists often debate the probability of life starting by chance. Creationists tend to argue that the odds are astronomically low, almost to the point of impossibility. In stark contrast, astrobiologists provide more optimistic estimates. According to these estimates, the probability that life started by chance is surprisingly high, with some suggesting as high as 90 percent. This article explores the range of optimistic estimates and delves into the role of quantum probability in supporting these ideas.
Optimistic Estimates of Life's Probability of Origin
Several scientific studies have provided optimistic estimates regarding the probability that life began on Earth by chance. These estimates span from 40 to 90 percent, significantly higher than pessimistic estimates. A study published in 2018 in PLOS ONE estimated the probability of life emerging on Earth to be 40 to 60 percent based on the RNA world hypothesis. A 2019 study in the journal of Astrobiology suggested a higher probability, estimating it to be 60 to 80 percent using simulations of Earth's chemistry and environment. Astrobiologist Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson further refined this estimate, with a 90 percent chance, given the presence of liquid water, organic molecules, and energy sources.
Agency and the Origins of Life
One might argue that the concept of life starting by chance requires the existence of an agency or a life form to initiate the process. This line of reasoning suggests that life might have been planted here intentionally, thus shifting the question to an earlier point in time. However, this perspective fails to address the inevitable point at which life must have begun without such agency, by chance. Ultimately, the argument concludes that some point in time, life must have started without agency, by pure chance.
Quantum Probability and Life's Emergence
In the realm of quantum science, probability is not just an ignorance but a powerful force that holds the universe together. Quantum probability plays a crucial role in supporting the ongoing existence of fundamental particles and celestial bodies, including the Sun. For example, the probability of two electrons occupying the same state is exactly zero, a phenomenon that is essential to the functioning of the universe and the life within it.
The Sun, for instance, relies on quantum probability to maintain its structure when nuclear fusion fuel runs out. As the Sun ages and exhausts its fuel, it transforms into a cold, dense stellar remnant known as a white dwarf, the size of Earth but with the mass of the Sun. This transformation is enabled by the fundamental forces described by quantum mechanics, such as the degeneracy pressure provided by quantum probability. Similarly, the emergence of life on the Earth, after its formation, could be attributed to the probabilistic nature of natural processes, leading to the rapid appearance of life in conditions that were quantum probable.
The early Earth, with its developing oceans, saw the emergence of life almost instantly. This rapid emergence involved a series of events that were driven by quantum probabilities, flexing their power and shaping the course of biological evolution. The interplay of quantum probability and environmental changes over geological timescales precipitated the conditions necessary for life to begin and evolve. Thus, the emergence of life might be seen as a manifestation of the inherent probabilistic nature of the universe, as described by quantum mechanics.