The Impact of Empress Elizabeth’s Death on Prussia: Speculative Analysis and Historical Context

The question of whether Prussia would have collapsed if Empress Elizabeth of Russia had not died in 1762 is a fraught one, teetering on the edge of historical conjecture. While Elizabeth’s death undoubtedly changed the course of the Seven Years War, it is essential to explore both the immediate and long-term implications of this event.

Context of the Time

Empress Elizabeth, whose reign spanned from 1741 to 1762, was known for her policies against Prussia. Her death, though not sudden, had a profound impact on the geopolitical landscape. By the time of her passing, six years of all-out war had already taken a toll on all combatants, including Prussia, Austria, and France.

Elizabeth's health had been deteriorating, as reported from St Petersburg. Accounts indicated that she often experienced shortness of breath, swelling in her legs, and frequent coughing. Her impending departure from the throne was no secret among the European powers, which led to the swift ascension of her nephew, Peter III.

Potential Outcomes

If Elizabeth had lived longer: Her policies against Prussia may have continued, with Austria joining the coalition to maintain the pressure on Frederick. The war could have been drawn out further, with even more strained resources and alliances.

The Shift in Russian Policy: Upon Peter III's ascension, he quickly ended the war against Prussia. This shift was crucial in preventing Prussia from facing a united front of its enemies, particularly Russia and Austria, which had grown weary from the prolonged conflict.

Prussian Resilience

Prussia's military and administrative structures were robust, allowing Frederick the Great to navigate the challenges effectively. His ability to mobilize resources and form alliances played a significant role in maintaining Prussia's position. However, prolonged conflict without relief would have undoubtedly strained Prussia's capabilities over time.

Long-term Implications

The collapse of Prussia would have had profound implications for the balance of power in Europe. A weakened Prussia might have led to a more significant influence for Austria in German affairs, or potentially paved the way for the rise of other states, such as a more unified Germany.

Historical Evidence and Contemporary Assessments

By 1762, the war was largely lost for the allies. The financial state of the Habsburg monarchy was dire, with a 40% annual revenue being devoted to servicing accumulated debt alone. By the time the war ended, the debt had grown to 7 or 8 times the Habsburg annual income. France was also on the verge of bankruptcy. When the French ambassador asked an Austrian financial guru about the fiscal structure, he was told, “Can one blind man show another the way?”

Frederick the Great, who was often referred to as "Alte Fritz," was well-prepared and confident. With the support of Peter III, he had the army and treasury necessary to counter Russia alone. Indeed, Prussia's resilience remained unbroken, even without the favorable shift in Russian policy.

Conclusion

While it is impossible to definitively state that Prussia would have collapsed without Empress Elizabeth's death, her passing certainly altered the trajectory of the conflict. While prussian resilience was evident, the pressures from its rivals and the financial strain of war made for a volatile situation. The extent of Prussia's resilience versus the pressures it faced remains a key point of historical speculation.