The Future of Coalition Politics in Kerala: The Possibility of Mahagathbandhan
The future of coalition politics in Kerala is fraught with challenges, especially in the context of the Mahagathbandhan, a coalition formed in Bihar before the 2015 legislative elections. Currently, there is no grand coalition in Kerala like the one in Bihar, which was a testament to the political dynamics in that state.
In Kerala, the political landscape is vastly different, characterized by three main coalitions: the Left Democratic Front (LDF), headed by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M), the United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the Indian National Congress (INC), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Front (NDA). These coalitions are already well defined, making the formation of a grand coalition on the scale of Mahagathbandhan seem unlikely.
Why a Mahagathbandhan in Kerala Is Unlikely
The reasons for the absence of a Mahagathbandhan in Kerala include:
Competing Coalition Dynamics: The United Democratic Front (UDF) of the Congress and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) of the Communists are at odds with each other. These two major coalitions have been alternately in power, making a grand alliance a daunting prospect. Potential Loss of Power: If the two major coalitions were to form a single alliance, the BJP would fill the opposition space. This shift could lead to a loss of power, which these parties are not willing to risk. Historic Cooperation: Both the Communists and Congress have minimized the BJP's influence, managing to win multiple elections without a major BJP presence. The potential alliance could undermine this strategy.Strategic Insights Against BJP in Kerala
Given the unique political dynamics in Kerala, the BJP has a more challenging path to form a major coalition. Unlike other states in India, the BJP is not a significant power in Kerala. Instead, the Communists and Congress have a stronger voter base across the state, particularly in Thiruvananthapuram, the capital.
To counter the BJP effectively, the existing coalitions in Kerala—the LDF, UDF, and the NDA—will need to focus on improving their voter bases and strengthening their internal politics. This internal strengthening will allow them to contest the upcoming elections with a united front.
Conclusion
As of now, a grand coalition like Mahagathbandhan is not an option for Kerala. The existing coalitions are already well defined, with the LDF and UDF playing key roles. Smaller parties within these coalitions also have significant influence, making a major shift unlikely.
Instead, the key strategy for countering the BJP in Kerala is to continue the existing coalitions' work on building a robust voter base and internal political unity. This approach ensures a competitive and fair electoral landscape for the upcoming elections in Kerala.