The Future of Automotive Mechanics as Electric Vehicles Take Over
As the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) continues, many are questioning the future of gasoline-powered cars, gas stations, and the mechanics who repair them. Not everyone can afford to own a new car, and many have their entire lives driving older models. This raises the question: What will happen to all our old cars once EVs take over?
The Decline of Gasoline-Powered Cars and Mechanic Jobs
With the rise of EVs, the number of gasoline-powered vehicles on the road is expected to decrease. However, this does not necessarily mean the end of mechanics or gas stations. Historically, every type of car has required specialized maintenance and repair work. Just as the transition to electric cars will not immediately abolish the need for mechanics, the same applies to gas stations.
One argument is that every plug-in EV should have a small gasoline or even propane engine to act as a range extender. This engine could provide heat, power the air conditioning, and supplement the electric powertrain. In the event of a battery failure, the extender would allow the vehicle to reach a charging station safely, preventing it from being unable to move (limp mode).
The Specialized Work of Aviation Mechanics
A personal encounter with a friend, who has been restoring vintage aircraft, offers insight into the specialized nature of automotive repair. In this case, the friend's son, an aircraft mechanic at the Wings Over the Rockies Air and Space Museum, is tasked with restoring old aircraft, including a P-51 Mustang from World War II. This job requires a high level of expertise in repairing and fabricating parts no longer available, as well as the ability to work with other experts and fly the aircraft once restored.
This specialized knowledge is not unique to aircraft mechanics; it is also prevalent in the world of gasoline-powered car mechanics. In the same way that restoring a vintage aircraft requires a deep understanding of its mechanical systems, fixing a gas-powered car requires a similar level of expertise. As EVs become more prevalent, mechanics with the necessary skills are likely to see a shift in their work, but they will still be needed for older models.
The Reality of a Gradual Transition
Despite the belief that the future will be black and white, the transition from gasoline-powered cars to EVs will be gradual. Current bans on new ICE (internal combustion engine) cars are not absolute; they are set to be phased out over an extended period. For example, the UK has a ban on new ICE car sales scheduled for 2035, but this does not mean that all gas-powered cars will disappear immediately.
Furthermore, the ban applies primarily to private cars and not commercial or industrial vehicles, such as tractors and motorcycles. This means that there will still be a significant number of gas stations catering to these vehicles. Similarly, there will continue to be a need for mechanics capable of working on gas-powered vehicles.
Even years after the ban, it is possible that some gas-powered cars will still be in use due to their longevity and the fact that it takes time for these vehicles to become fully depreciated. Additionally, there will always be a niche market for preserving and maintaining historically significant vehicles.
In conclusion, the rise of electric vehicles will not completely eliminate gas stations and mechanics who know how to fix older cars. While the number of gasoline-powered cars on the roads is expected to decline, mechanics and service stations will still exist to service older vehicles and preserve automotive history. This transition will not be instantaneous but rather a gradual process that will take decades to fully implement.