The Potential Impact of Britain and France Not Honoring Their Promise to Poland

Consider the scenario where Britain and France had not honored their promise to defend Poland on March 31, 1939. This would have significantly altered the geopolitical landscape of Europe, particularly between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. Without the British and French war guarantee, Poland might have made different decisions in terms of its relations with Germany, potentially leading to a more favorable resolution for Germany.

The Basis for Potential German Agreements with Poland

In January 1939, Hitler had already proposed an agreement to Poland that encompassed territorial adjustments, infrastructure developments, and a mutual anti-Soviet alliance. This agreement would have likely been more favorable for Germany, as it would have involved the transfer of Danzig and the construction of a major road and railway to connect the Reich with East Prussia, while requiring Poland to join Germany in its anti-Soviet pact. This scenario suggests that without British and French intervention, Poland might have capitulated to these terms, leading to a more stable eastern border for Germany.

The Role of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact signed in August 1939 was a direct response to British determination to provide a war guarantee to Poland. If Britain and France had not intervened, this agreement might never have come into existence. Without the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Germany would have been less likely to seek an alliance with the Soviet Union, potentially altering the course of the Eastern Front conflicts.

Potential Outcomes in the Eastern Front

In the absence of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and British and French involvement, Germany’s campaign in the East might have concluded with the defeat of the Soviet Union. The exclusion of the Soviet Union from the conflict would have made the Nazis the sole aggressors in Eastern Europe. This scenario suggests that a German-Soviet war would have been the only significant war in Europe during that period, eliminating the possibility of World War II as we know it.

The Impact on International Relations

The absence of World War II would have far-reaching consequences for various global developments. The US-Soviet Cold War would not have occurred, and decolonization would not have taken place in the same form as it did after the conclusion of World War II. The power balance in Europe and beyond would have shifted dramatically, impacting diplomatic and military strategies of nations around the world.

The Diplomatic Maneuvers Leading to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact

Following the Munich Agreement in October 1938, the German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop proposed a general agreement to address outstanding issues between Germany and Poland. Danzig’s transfer was a key element of these proposals, which would have facilitated the Reich’s connection to East Prussia. Poland’s rejection of these proposals led to further tensions.

On March 31, 1939, Britain and France issued a public guarantee of Poland’s borders, but this guarantee was vague and did not specify how military support would be provided. This guarantee was a direct response to Germany’s increasing pressure on Poland, but it also pitted Britain and France against the Soviet Union, who feared annexation by Nazi Germany.

The Germans sought to secure their eastern front by fostering an anti-Soviet alliance with Poland, but the Russians were keen on their own security. Britain and France saw the potential for a four-power pact but were hesitant to exclude the Soviet Union. Soviet suspicions of Western countries, combined with their surprise at the appeasement policies of the Western powers, favored a rapprochement with Germany. On May 3, 1939, the Soviet government made a symbolic political shift, replacing the Foreign Minister Maksim Litvinov with Vyacheslav Molotov, who had a more favorable view toward Germany.

Stalin, who felt slighted by the Western powers, particularly Britain and France, resented the proposed four-power pacts that excluded the Soviet Union. The signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in August 1939 was a strategic move by the Soviet Union to ensure national security and to seek an alliance with Germany against potential threats.

Conclusion

Had Britain and France not honored their promise to Poland, the geopolitical landscape of Europe would have been significantly different. This scenario would have prevented the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and potentially led to a German victory in the East, with the absence of World War II and its attendant consequences. The diplomatic maneuvering and the vacillation of Western powers and the Soviet Union highlight the complex interplay of international relations in the lead-up to the major conflicts of the 20th century.