The Clock is Ticking: Predictions on Human Survival in the Face of Rapid Global Warming
Human survival in the face of rapid global warming remains a pressing concern. Drawing on historical precedents, the research on past mass extinctions provides a stark reminder of the potential for drastic changes in environmental conditions leading to catastrophic outcomes for life on Earth.
Past Mass Extinctions and Global Warming
Examining historical events such as the Terminal Permian event, which resulted in the extinction of 80% of all life, underscores the severe impact of global warming. This event was caused by a massive lava eruption in Siberia, emitting vast amounts of CO2 and causing rapid global warming. It is important to note that the term "rapid" in this context does not align with the current pace of global warming, which is significantly faster than during the Terminal Permian event.
As the global temperature rises, the oceans acidify and stratify, leading to the formation of anoxic conditions at greater depths. These conditions can result in the release of H2S (hydrogen sulfide), which can be fatal to marine life and potentially affect us as well. The recent Ditlevsen et al. paper highlights the growing concern about the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) potentially collapsing within the decade. Historically, such circulation changes can occur within just 4 years.
The Future Wars
Considering the dire consequences of continued global warming, it is not far-fetched to imagine scenarios outlined in Gwynn Dyer's profound Future Wars. One such scenario involves a nuclear war over water resources between India and Pakistan, leading to a chain of events that culminate in an apocalyptic scenario described in the final chapter. Dyer envisions a world where the remaining humans, speaking mostly in English and Russian, huddle around the shores of a Canfield anoxic ocean, awaiting their doom.
Implications and Predictions
Addressing the question of human survival, if we continue to delay action on global warming, a majority of humans are likely to face extinction within 50 years. This grim prediction is based on the harsh reality that global warming is an integral part of climate change. Since 1880, the global average temperature has risen by approximately one degree Celsius. On a year-over-year basis since 1970, the increase in temperature has been minimal and barely perceptible.
While predictions may vary, it is clear that if humanity does nothing to address global warming, the future will be dire for both plant and animal species and eventually for humans. We are already witnessing the effects of climate warming on extinctions and species stress. Some plants and animals are facing imminent extinction, others are under stress, and several have already succumbed to anthropogenic human-caused climate warming.
As a global community, focusing on immediate and actionable steps is crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change and ensure a sustainable future. This could include reducing carbon emissions, adopting renewable energy sources, and implementing policies to protect and restore ecosystems.
Concluding Remarks
The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. The scientific community urges policymakers and individuals to take immediate action to address global warming. The fate of the planet, and ultimately human survival, lies in our collective hands.