Introduction

The hypothetical scenario of Hitler launching a full-scale attack on Dunkirk with the Wehrmacht presents an intriguing question in the realm of alternate history. What would have been the outcome if this operation had gone forward, considering the unique circumstances and the potential consequences for both Britain and Germany?

The Strategic Implications of an Attack on Dunkirk

Lazy historians often overlook the critical war diaries from that period, which clearly demonstrate that an assault on Dunkirk would have severely compromised the German Army’s strategic position. The masses of British troops and superior Matilda tanks at Dunkirk would have posed a significant challenge to the Germans, especially given the critical shortage of war materials and the vital contribution of British BEF (British Expeditionary Force) tanks like the Matilda I and II.

Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom, the then Queen, was a vociferous proponent of maintaining and strengthening the British forces. Her role in supporting Churchill and the government would have been crucial to the continuation of the war effort. Moreover, considering the political landscape, it is unlikely that British parliament or the wartime cabinet would have chosen to replace Churchill, whose leadership was indispensable for rallying the nation and maintaining morale.

The Unintended Consequences for Germany

An attack on Dunkirk would have exposed the Southern Front to the French, which could have launched a significant attack from the North. The resulting break through could have severely jeopardized the German line, leading to a potential encirclement of the German forces on the Atlantic Coast. Additionally, Germany's meager supply of tanks, mainly composed of unreliable PzIIs, would have been severely depleted, further hindering their military capabilities.

Churchill, on the other hand, had planned for the worst-case scenario with Operation Dynamo. Although he expected to lose a significant portion of the troops, he had contingency plans in place. The rally of public support and government backing was a testament to his leadership skills and ability to maintain the morale of the nation. Even if the British Army had been practically decimated, the accumulation of manpower through further mobilization ensured a stable fighting force by the end of the war.

Military and Political Consequences

The military situation would have been precarious for Germany, as they would have lost a substantial portion of their armored corps and the Southern Front would have been critically weakened. This would have significantly hampered their overall military-strategic objectives in the campaign against France and Britain.

Politically, the situation would have been volatile. Churchill could have used the destruction of the BEF as a pretext to continue the war and garner even more public support. Given the prevailing anti-German sentiment in Britain, such a scenario could have further inflamed the populace, pushing them to fight even harder against the Axis powers.

Conclusion

In conclusion, unless the King or the British parliament took decisive action to replace Churchill with a more conciliatory figure, such as Lord Halifax, the war would likely have continued. Churchill’s leadership was crucial in maintaining the resolve of the British people and ensuring that the military could be rebuilt and reinforced. The hypothetical scenario of a full-scale attack on Dunkirk presents a complex array of consequences, both for the immediate battle and the broader strategic context of the Second World War.

These considerations highlight the intricate balance of factors that shaped the course of the war and the pivotal role played by key figures such as Churchill and Elizabeth II.

Keywords: Dunkirk, Blitzkrieg, Hitler