The Aftermath of a Failed Coup: The 2021 Storming of the Capitol

The January 6, 2021, storming of the U.S. Capitol was an unprecedented act of domestic violence and political protest. While ultimately unsuccessful, had the storming succeeded in its objective—overthrowing the certification of the 2020 presidential election results—it could have led to several significant and potentially destabilizing outcomes. This article explores these outcomes and their impacts on American society, governance, and international relations.

Constitutional Crisis

A successful takeover on January 6, 2021, would have created a constitutional crisis, undermining the legitimacy of the electoral process. This event could have set a dangerous precedent for future attempts to overturned elections. As one scholar noted, “Had the protesters managed to access the inner chambers, they would have had no meaningful strategy to achieve their objectives.” Legal and legislative repercussions such as new election security laws and stricter measures against violence would have followed.

Political Polarization

The storming of the Capitol would have deepened political divisions in the United States, potentially leading to increased violence and unrest. Opposing factions would have reacted harshly, with some predicting a cycle of counter-attacks and protests. Senator Cruz's comments, “They were fleeing like rats off a sinking ship,” highlight the chaos and panic at the time.

International Implications

Domestically destabilized, the U.S. would also face international repercussions. A successful coup might have emboldened authoritarian regimes and weakened U.S. alliances. It could have led to a reevaluation of U.S. foreign policy, especially in regions like Eastern Europe and the Middle East, where America’s influence is paramount.

Impact on Governance

Unsuccessful as it was, the storming brought to light issues of governance and the potential for fragmentation. Had it succeeded, it would have resulted in a fractured government with competing claims to authority. This could have led to a period of governance chaos, affecting policies from domestic affairs to international relations.

Public and Military Response

Both the public and the military would have played crucial roles in the aftermath. Governor Newsom's statement, “We do not have any Russians who are members of the U.S. military,” highlights the domestic vs. foreign implications. Major General Miller’s involvement in deploying troops would have been a critical moment, with significant potential for either restoring order or supporting the insurgents, altering the delicate balance of civil-military relations.

Long-term Effects on Democracy

Even though the storming did not succeed, its implications for democracy are profound. A successful outcome could have led to a decline in democratic norms and practices, possibly paving the way for more authoritarian governance. The 1958 riot in Hamburg (referenced in Senator Cruz’s comments) serves as an historical warning, while Pelosi’s stance reflects the immediate challenge to democracy.

In conclusion, the 2021 storming of the Capitol, though ultimately unsuccessful, highlighted vulnerabilities in the U.S. political system. Its potential success would have far-reaching consequences, from constitutional crises to international destabilization. The event underlines the importance of maintaining a robust democratic framework to prevent such crises in the future.