Sweden's Pandemic Experience: Why Fewer Deaths in the Absence of Lockdowns

In the ongoing discourse surrounding the global pandemic, one intriguing question remains:

Sweden’s Exceptionalism: Few Deaths Despite No Lockdown

If there really is a pandemic, why didn’t more people die in Sweden and other countries that did not implement lockdowns? Sweden has maintained a very low surplus death rate during the pandemic, with numbers remaining significantly below the EU average, with the exception of April-May 2020. Sweden’s approach involved continuous public recommendations for preventive measures, including recommendations for reopening schools and businesses. Despite these recommendations, the virus had a considerable impact, particularly in elderly care homes.

Infection and Death Rates: A Comparative Analysis

As of November 27, 2021, Sweden displays remarkably low COVID-19 infection and death rates compared to its neighboring countries. The infection rates in Sweden are notably lower than in Finland, Norway, Denmark, and the results reveal a striking difference.

Infection rates and death rates vary dramatically. Sweden, in particular, has seen a significant number of infections and deaths, yet it has managed to maintain a lower burden compared to other countries. The reasons for this phenomenon are still largely unclear, with some speculations including the cautious behavior of the unvaccinated population, the reduced vulnerability of the population due to earlier deaths, and even the potential impact of cultural or economic factors.

The Impact on Elderly Care Facilities

While the overall death rate in Sweden was lower compared to other countries, elderly care homes faced a severe outbreak, with many residents falling victim to the virus. These facilities were inadequately prepared, leading to a high concentration of deaths. Fortunately, with the implementation of stricter measures and a higher vaccination rate, the situation has improved significantly. However, even with these improvements, Sweden’s death rate per million was still higher in 25 European countries, including 23 in Sweden and the Netherlands, 100 in Italy, 350 in Hungary, and 100 in the Czech Republic.

Comparative Analysis with Neighboring Countries

To understand Sweden’s position, it is instructive to compare its figures with those of its Scandinavian neighbors. As of May 8, 2020, Sweden had more than 297,000 cases and over 7,000 deaths, whereas the combined populations of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, and Norway (around 17 million) reported approximately 182,445 cases and 1,883 deaths. Despite having a smaller population, Sweden faced a higher number of infections and deaths, raising questions about the effectiveness of Sweden’s approach.

Conclusion

The reasons for Sweden’s lower death rate despite having no lockdown remain elusive, and the country continues to face a unique set of challenges and benefits in managing its pandemic. The ongoing research and analysis aim to provide clarity on these matters, offering insights that could be valuable for other countries navigating their pandemic responses.