NATO and Ukraine: No Boots on the Ground in 2024?
Recent statements by US President Joe Biden during his State of the Union address suggest that the US, and by extension NATO, may seek to keep its boots off the ground in Ukraine. This aligns with the prevailing view that a suitably weaponized Ukraine could handle the conflict, sparing the United States and NATO from direct involvement.
The Outlook for NATO Troop Presence in Ukraine
According to current assessments, NATO will likely not have troops on the ground in Ukraine by the end of 2024, or in the foreseeable future. The presence of NATO troops will instead rely on individual member nations sending soldiers, rather than a coordinated NATO-led initiative. These troops will mainly support Ukraine in non-combat roles such as logistics, air defense, and humanitarian efforts.
Several smaller NATO countries, such as France, are likely to send troops, but they will not be frontline combat units. Danish air mechanics and ground crew, for instance, are expected to be among the support units assisting with their nation’s committed F-16s. Approximately 50 to 80 percent, and in some cases even more, of roles in high-tech modern armies are non-combat roles.
A War of Attrition
The current conflict is a classic example of a war of attrition, which has historically favored the local forces. This is evident in conflicts like the Vietnam War and the Soviet-Afghan War. The indefinite nature of the conflict, as described by the term 'stalemate,' means that there will be minimal gains for either side, weakening the invading force in the long run.
This stalemate-like status quo, coupled with Russia's known plans, suggests that NATO will continue to support Ukraine through weapons and financial assistance, but not through boots on the ground. The philosophy of the West in this conflict appears to be to maintain a strategic distance while providing enough support to sustain Ukraine's resistance.
Challenges and Assumptions
The continuation of the status quo, with the conflict remaining in a deadlock, is the key assumption driving NATO's current stance. If Putin changes his strategy, using chemical weapons or conducting large-scale aerial bombings, this could change. In such a case, some NATO members might reconsider their position, as was warned by President Emmanuel Macron.
The implication is that while the current strategy of supporting Ukraine from a distance is sustainable, the situation could evolve if Russia's tactics or objectives change. NATO's commitment remains contingent on preserving the current balance of power and quickly resolving the conflict through attrition, minimizing direct involvement.
In conclusion, it appears that NATO's troops will not be on the ground in Ukraine by the end of 2024, or possibly ever, unless Russia decides to take a dramatically different approach to the conflict. The current approach balances direct involvement with sufficient support for Ukraine to maintain its resistance.