Is Nancy Pelosi's Impeachment Push Against Trump Feasible?
There has been much discussion and speculation surrounding the potential for Nancy Pelosi to initiate impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. However, given the current political landscape and recent legal rulings, such a move by Pelosi appears highly unlikely. This article delves into the feasibility of an impeachment, the legal and political challenges, and the broader implications for the upcoming 2020 election.
Current Political Landscape and Legal Context
Nancy Pelosi, now no longer serving as the Speaker of the House, finds herself in a position where she has neither the power nor the majority vote to impeach President Trump. It is a commonly held belief that an individual cannot be impeached for an office they no longer hold. Therefore, any current or future target for impeachment would likely have to be someone with a current or future elected position. This point highlights the current infeasibility of Trump's impeachment by Pelosi.
Legal Precedents and Supreme Court Rulings
Recent legal precedents and rulings have further solidified the notion that Donald Trump cannot be held liable for actions outside the scope of his office, even if those actions involved mass murder or other heinous acts. For instance, a 2021 Supreme Court decision stated that leaders cannot be held legally responsible for the actions of others. This means that even if Trump were involved in a scenario as extreme as mass murder, which is used purely for illustrative purposes here, the courts would likely rule in his favor.
Even if Trump were convicted of some transgression, the ability for him to 'self-forgive' or have complete control over the narrative would further complicate any legal or political proceedings. This is a reference to the high likelihood of Trump leveraging his position to influence public opinion and sway any legal decisions in his favor.
Historical Precedents and Modern Implications
Historically, impeachments in the United States have often been more politically motivated than based on clear legal violations. The impeachment of Bill Clinton and the attempted impeachment of Andrew Johnson, for example, were driven by political motives rather than straightforward legal offenses. The severe limitations on the Senate's ability to remove the President, as seen in Clinton's case and Johnson's attempted removal, provide a historical precedent for the challenges impeachment poses.
Key Considerations: The political landscape and the Senate control further complicate the feasibility of impeachment. With Republicans controlling the Senate, the likelihood of securing the two-thirds majority required for a conviction is extremely low. Given Clinton and Johnson's precedents, it is unlikely that an impeachment attempt would lead to a successful removal of Trump from office.
Political Motives and 2020 Election Dynamics
The question remains whether Democrats would pursue impeachment if it could potentially impact the 2020 election. For many Democrats, the argument for impeachment revolves around historical precedents rather than Trump's current actions. The adage "It’s the economy, stupid" often takes precedence over impeachment, as the economy and public sentiment play a significant role in election outcomes.
Economic Considerations: The current political environment places significant emphasis on the economy. With Democrats focusing heavily on economic issues and attacking Trump's policies, the emphasis on impeachment appears secondary. The goal is often portrayed as ending the smear campaign against Trump rather than pushing through an impeachment that lacks the required support.
In light of this, it is reasonable to conclude that the Democrats might wait until 2020 to pursue impeachment. This timing would allow them to leverage a potential Senate majority for a more successful conviction. If Trump is reelected, the Democrats can use impeachment as a tool to negotiate leverage in 2020.
Leveling the playing field, Trump's high unpopularity could be a double-edged sword. While his unwavering support from key groups might prevent a primary challenge, impeachment could target the moderates and uncommitted voters, potentially damaging his reelection bid.
In conclusion, while there has been much debate about Nancy Pelosi's potential impeachment strategy, the current legal, political, and historical context suggest that such an effort is unlikely to succeed before or after the 2020 election.