Is Arvind Kejriwal and AAP on a Decline?
Many believe that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is on the decline. However, there is a strong argument against this claim. While the party is facing numerous challenges, it is not necessarily on the path to downfall. The current government's tactics, such as the misuse of anti-drug trafficking laws against AAP leaders, have only fueled public sympathy and support for the party. Additionally, the upcoming General Elections in 2024 could potentially favor the AAP, providing them with a golden opportunity to regain their former glory.
Persecution and Public Sentiment
Under the current government's biased policies and revenge-minded approach, AAP leaders like Manish Kejriwal have been persecuted under the Anti-Drug Trafficking Act (APML Act), which is clearly intended for international drug trafficking and bears no relevance to AAP or its opposition. This has greatly upset the public, as they feel that their elected leaders are suffering unjustly. This public sentiment is a significant factor that keeps the AAP's support base strong and motivated.
Moreover, none of the AAP leaders and MLAs appear to have been bought by the BJP's money power, which is a testament to the party's integrity and public trust. It is possible that with the ever-ecstatic public support for leaders like Kejriwal and Rahul Gandhi, and the overwhelming support for the Congress and India Alliance, the AAP might have a significant advantage in the upcoming elections. This expectation holds especially true as the results of the 2023 General Election showed a strong shift away from the BJP, with the Enforcement Directorate (ED) itself releasing several AAP leaders pending further investigations.
2024 General Elections and Outlook
The General Election 2024 has been announced, and the model code of conduct has been enforced. At this critical juncture, focusing on elections and making sure that the public voices are heard is paramount. Instead of concentrating on the elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has resorted to jailing the most popular and successful chief minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal. This decision is likely to haunt the BJP, as it is seen as a severe misstep or a major blunder.
Given the current trajectory, if the BJP suffers a humiliating defeat in the 2024 General Elections, Prime Minister Modi might retire and become a great margadarshak. However, despite this potential exit, the BJP is likely to face a severe setback, possibly becoming zero on June 4th. This could mark the end of the BJP's prominence for at least the next 50 years.
Regional Achievements and Future Prospects
It's essential to note that Arvind Kejriwal and the AAP have achieved significant milestones. Never before has a regional party won two states simultaneously, as AAP did in both Punjab and Delhi. This is a remarkable feat and a testament to Kejriwal's leadership. In Delhi, the AAP has won more than 60 out of 70 seats in two consecutive elections, indicating a strong control and a significant mandate of confidence among the electorate.
While the AAP has somewhat lost its moral high ground, the perception of being "clean" is becoming clouded due to recent controversies, including the corrections scam and the renovation of CM's house. Despite this, the AAP has a solid base in Delhi and Punjab, which it can rely on for future elections. The party's future in these regions is secure in the near to medium term, as even in defeat, AAP will remain the main opposition party, securing more votes than the Congress.
The AAP's future outside Delhi and Punjab is not as certain. The corruption charges against Kejriwal and the overall decline in image as a "clean party" may hurt their growth in other regions. However, time and circumstances could change this narrative, as history has shown that many leaders can still maintain their political relevance despite facing corruption charges.
In conclusion, while Arvind Kejriwal and the AAP face challenges, they are certainly not on a decline. The upcoming General Elections in 2024 offer a new chapter for the party, and with consistent public support and regional success in Delhi and Punjab, the AAP has the potential to remain a formidable force in Indian politics.