Excess Mortality and COVID-19: Understanding the Impact and Risks

The term 'excess mortality' is a term used in epidemiology and public health to describe the phenomenon where the number of deaths during a crisis exceeds the number of deaths that would be expected under normal conditions. This article delves into the concept of excess mortality in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, exploring its implications and statistical estimates.

Understanding Excess Mortality

Excess Mortality refers to the additional deaths that occur during a crisis such as a pandemic, over and above the typical number of deaths expected in a given time period. As of August 12, it has been estimated that across the United States, at least 200,000 more people died than usual since March. This figure is significantly higher than the number of deaths that have been directly attributed to the coronavirus, totaling approximately 60,000 more than expected.

The Importance of Accurate Cause of Death Statistics

The focus on excess mortality is crucial because it helps healthcare policymakers allocate resources and develop strategies to mitigate the impact of the crisis. Claiming that a certain number of deaths are unimportant because the individuals would have died of something else within a year is not only ethically questionable but also scientifically flawed.

For example, if you were to claim that no one is killed in car-pedestrian accidents because they might die of something else within 12 months, such logical reasoning would undermine the importance of traffic safety measures. Similarly, counting all deaths as 'other causes' would obliterate the need for robust public health interventions, such as vaccination programs and clinical care for those stricken with the virus.

Risks and Mortality Rates of Different Diseases

The mortality rate for COVID-19 can vary widely, but it is generally lower than certain other diseases. For instance, an average of roughly 2% of people who test positive for the virus have died from the disease. This is calculated by the ratio of infected individuals to those who have died, with roughly 10,000 infected and 200 deaths leading to a 1 in 50 mortality rate.

For comparison, the Influenza mortality rate is about 0.02, or 1 in 7,680. The 2014 Ebola outbreak had a mortality rate of around 38%, meaning 19 out of 50 infected individuals died. These figures underscore the significant impact of COVID-19 on mortality levels in comparison to these other diseases.

Conclusion

While the comparison of mortality rates seems stark, it is crucial to understand that these numbers reflect the overall impact of the disease on the population. For individuals, however, the risk of contracting and dying from COVID-19 is relatively low, especially for those with robust immune systems. Nonetheless, it is imperative to continue monitoring and supporting public health measures to minimize the impact of the virus and protect vulnerable populations.