End of Hostilities: Analyzing Hamas' Future in the Holy War Context
In recent developments, the ongoing conflict between Hamas and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has become a focal point of international attention. A prominent theme is the persistent rhetoric surrounding whether Hamas can prevail in this so-called 'holy war.' This analysis aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the current situation, the nature of the conflict, and the likelihood of Hamas' success or ultimate defeat.
Current State of Hostilities
Recent reports indicate that Hamas is being eliminated. Their soldiers are surrendering in large numbers, and their top officials are fleeing and going into hiding. This trend suggests a significant shift in the tide of the conflict. At this stage, the primary goal of Hamas is not to win but to face elimination.
Current Rocket Attacks
As of now, Hamas is launching between 10-20 short rockets per day, with a substantial portion failing at launch or being intercepted by the Iron Dome system. This is a stark contrast to the earlier stage of the war, where they were launching several hundred rockets per day, and the majority of those traced to hit populated areas were intercepted at a rate over 90%.
Terror Weapon and Strategic Reassessment
The use of rockets, irrespective of the quantity, is considered a terror weapon by many. At any scale, these attacks are not a decisive factor in a conflict between a terrorist organization and a regular army. As the days pass, the number of launching sites and terrorists being liquidated is increasing. This trend is clear evidence that the endgame for Hamas is defeat.
Legitimate Right to Self-Defense
Regarding the right to self-defense, the Fourth Geneva Convention's Article 51 affirms that Gazans have a more significant right to defend themselves against their oppressors/occupiers. This legal framework underscores the legitimacy of defensive actions taken by Gazans against the occupying forces.
Psychological Warfare and Religious Narratives
The principle that religious faith can guide war strategies is evident in the statements made by military leaders. An Egyptian general mentioned that God is on Israel's side and will fight their battles, regardless of their suffering. This religious narrative can be misleading, as it conflates religious faith with military strategies and outcomes.
Critical Misunderstandings of Religious and War Concepts
Unfortunately, statements like 'All God needs is to fight for them, smite the IDF to hell, and it's done' reveal a profound lack of understanding of both religious and war concepts. Jihad is a complex term with multiple meanings, including personal spiritual effort and collective armed struggle. The concept of ghazw (small jihad) is often misunderstood and misused. The public should be aware of the Islamic laws of war, which Hamas and ISIS violate, further justifying the actions against them.
Conclusion
The rhetoric around Hamas winning a 'holy war' is misguided and based on a lack of understanding of the conflict's realities. The current trend and the continuous reduction of operational capabilities make it clear that Hamas will be eliminated. It is crucial for all parties to understand the legal and moral frameworks guiding such conflicts and to work towards peaceful resolutions based on these principles.