Introduction
The scenario of a convicted and imprisoned former President, Donald Trump, somehow winning the Electoral College without securing the popular vote, is both improbable and fraught with constitutional complications.
The Improbable Scenario
If Donald Trump were to be imprisoned and then somehow secure a victory in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote, this would trigger an unprecedented and potentially chaotic constitutional crisis. Such an outcome would be highly unlikely, given the legal hurdles and public scrutiny such a result would face. Nevertheless, let's explore what might happen in such an improbable scenario.
The Constitutional Pathway
If we hypothetically accept such an outcome, where Trump is incarcerated and re-elected, several constitutional provisions come into play:
Flagrant Breaches and Legal Movements
The idea of Trump donning an orange jumpsuit is not just a far-fetched scenario but one evoking widespread outrage and ridicule. The idea of federal prison guards laughing at his situation is an accessible exaggeration of the public's reaction.
For the sake of argument, let's explore the steps that might follow if Trump were indeed re-elected and subsequently incarcerated:
Impeachment and Imprisonment
Assuming Trump secured a Republican-majority House and Senate, it's conceivable that a Republican-controlled Congress might attempt to suspend his sentence until after his term. This would be a significant power maneuver, considering the global perception of re-electing a known criminal and con-man.
Alternatives and Federal Oversight
Were Trump to be facing state prison rather than federal, Congress likely would have no say. However, the Republican-controlled government might still be interested in sidestepping the issue, potentially using the 25th Amendment to declare Trump unable to serve and replacing him with the Vice President.
The 25th Amendment and Presidential Powers
Under the 25th Amendment, if the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet declare the President unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President becomes acting president. This mechanism ensures continuity of government in times of crisis.
Resuming Powers After the Inauguration
The scenario of a President sending a letter reasserting his powers and having them reinstated within 21 days isn't straightforward. Should Trump attempt to resume his powers, the process would involve:
Presuming the Vice President has declared Trump's inability, the President would send a letter to both the Speaker of the House and the President pro Tempore of the Senate asserting that "no inability exists." The President would have four days to resume his powers unless the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet reiterate their previous contention. If this happens, the President would be automatically reinstated, subject to Congress's 21-day review. If Congress votes to affirm the President's inability, he would remain in office, and the Vice President would continue as acting president.Conclusion
While the idea of a convicted and re-elected President is absurd, it underscores the importance of the 25th Amendment and the constitutional checks and balances in place. The scenario of Trump's imprisonment and election would likely trigger a series of legal and political actions aimed at addressing any such crisis.