Is There a Way to Shoot Down Short-Range Ballistic Missiles As They Approach Their Targets?

The Moscow War Gamed Scenario: Theater IRBMs in Ukraine

Traditionally, discussions on missile defense have revolved around long-range missiles like ICBMs. However, in recent geopolitical events, such as the conflict in Ukraine, a different but equally pressing question has arisen: can shorter-range ballistic missiles (theater IRBMs) be intercepted before they strike their targets?

This is particularly relevant given the tense standoff between NATO and Russia. Before the invasion of Ukraine, there was significant public and political debate about NATO's missile defense infrastructure, especially after Russia positioned its own anti-missile systems in Syria and Crimea.

The scenario I proposed was a radical but feasible one, involving arming vessels with SM-3 missiles and deploying them in the Black Sea. The idea was simple: stations a few of these ships within the range to offer intercept coverage to cities like Kiev. Although it seemed unlikely at the time, current events have shown that the Kremlin had been planning for such contingencies.

That being said, the sea-based approach is just one potential solution. Other options include surface-to-air missiles like the GBI, THAAD, Patriot, AEGIS SM-3, SM-2 Block IV, and SM-6. While the SM-3 is particularly effective, all of these systems can play a role in intercepting missiles during their mid-course and terminal phases.

Bold Assertions: Easy Interceptions and High-Success Interception Scenarios

One might wonder if it's as simple as using a hunting rifle to shoot down a missile right after it leaves its silo. Given that modern missile launchers typically send the missile up at about 60 miles per hour, it's theoretically feasible but highly improbable to hit it at such a close range. However, moving the intercept point to within range of a ship or air defense system significantly increases the chances of success.

For more significant threats, intercepting an ICBM, the process is even more complex. ICBMs are typically launched from deep within a country's borders and have multiple stages. By the time the warheads separate, the missile is already in low Earth orbit, making it far more difficult to intercept. This risk, however, is underestimated by many.

Intercepting the first stage of an ICBM just after launch within the range of a ground-based radar system or missile defense network is a complex but not impossible task. Such an interception is not only nuts, but also a testament to how nations are constantly devising new strategies to counter treacherous threats.

Realistic Expectations and Success Rates

While the idea of shooting down missiles seems straightforward in theory, practical scenarios demonstrate different outcomes. According to analysis, intercepting a single ICBM with ideal conditions, such as target data days in advance, is theoretically possible but highly unlikely. However, with a few hundred missiles and less than half an hour of advanced warning, there is a slim chance that even a fraction of them might be successfully intercepted. Successful interception would result in fewer explosions and closer misses.

Factoring in the chaotic nature of modern warfare, success rates are further complicated. Horseshoes, hand grenades, and nukes aside, even such sophisticated systems have limitations. Success depends not just on technology but on the precision and skill of operators, weather conditions, and numerous other variables.

Conclusion: A Dispiriting Reality Check

While the potential for intercepting short-range ballistic missiles is more concrete, the prospect of shooting down long-range missiles like ICBMs becomes increasingly dispiriting the closer the missile gets to its target. The mere existence of these threats underscores the need for continued investment and innovation in missile defense technology. Despite the challenges, it is crucial to explore all possible avenues to protect populations and military assets from ever-evolving threats.