Biden's Second Term: Eligibility and Prospects

Hillary Clinton once said, #8220;if Biden wins it will be his second term. Then he's done. Two and out.#8221; Absolutely, that was out of date then, and it is even more so now. Joe Biden, who was sworn in as the 46th President of the United States on January 20, 2021, is currently running for re-election on November 6, 2024, for his second term. Currently, it's the center of attention, and the question at hand is whether he will indeed run and, if so, what the political landscape will look like.

Current Situation and Eligibility

As of July 14, 2024, Joe Biden is the President of the United States. In just over 4 months, the nation will see the race for the White House, with Biden already making strides in his second campaign bid. What many may not realize is that there is currently no legal restriction on how many terms a president can serve under the current U.S. Constitution. However, the 22nd Amendment does place a two-term limit on the presidency, meaning a president is eligible for only two terms, but there's no barrier to re-entering the race after a term has been served.

Past and Future

Before he withdrew from a potential third term bid, the scenario was different. However, after he withdrew, the matter became much clearer. The current law allows a president to run again after completing their first term. This means that if Biden wins in 2024, he would serve a full second term, and his political career would effectively conclude.

Expert Judgments and Historical Context

However, such a straightforward answer is far from guaranteed in today's tumultuous political environment. Political scientists and presidential historians, often identified as conservatives, rank Joe Biden at a mediocre 30 and Donald Trump, his Republican opponent, as a disastrous 42 as of July 2024. Such rankings paint a picture where mediocrity is considered a victory. It is indeed a stark reminder of the deep divide in American politics and public opinion.

Challenges and Probability

While the Constitution does not inherently prevent Biden from running again, the political reality is far more complex. Historically, no president with a low approval rating has ever managed to win a re-election campaign. Given that Biden's approval ratings have been below expectations, this presents a significant challenge. Lawmakers and political strategists see it as a near certainty that no president with such a rating has ever made it to the second term. Still, the unequivocal proof of eligibility reminds us that he has the constitutional and legal right to seek re-election.

Can Only Congress Stop Him?

Some argue that Congress could theoretically prevent a president from running for re-election using the 25th Amendment, which allows for a temporary transfer of powers if the President is incapacitated. However, this amendment was never meant to be used for such purposes, and even if it were, the prevailing political climate would not allow it. Congress, especially with a divided government, is much more likely to focus on internal party politics and voter sentiment rather than such legal technicalities.

Concluding Statement

Given the current landscape, Biden's decision to run for re-election is certainly a gamble. The challenges he faces, both politically and in terms of approval ratings, make the victory in 2024 uncertain. Nonetheless, the legal framework is clear: he has the right to run if he chooses to do so. The future of American democracy hinges on the choices that the electorate makes come November 2024.