Assessing Buhari's Chances for a Second Term in Nigeria

As an outsider with a keen interest in African elections, my observations suggest that Nigeria has regressed under President Muhammadu Buhari's leadership. Jihadi Islamists are on the rise, separatist movements are gaining momentum, and oil wealth is being squandered. These developments echo in the comments from Nigerian colleagues, who note the country's decline from when Goodluck Jonathan was in office. West Africa and the broader ECOWAS region could benefit from better leadership.

Narrative of Deterioration

There is a clear narrative of deterioration in Nigeria under Buhari's rule. The economy is in poor shape, with the Naira losing value daily. Infrastructure is deteriorating, and insecurity is reaching unprecedented levels. Many citizens feel that the situation is worse now than it was in 2015, when Buhari first assumed office. His ongoing tenure is seen as a burden rather than a necessity.

Presidential Intentions and Governance

President Buhari appears more eager to retire to his farm in Daura, Katsina State, than to continue serving. His commitment to a proper handover through ensuring that the political processes for the upcoming elections are in place is widely recognized. It is unlikely that he would attempt to extend his tenure, even under the constitution's special circumstances, such as the current state of insecurity.

Rumors and Conversations

Discussions about whether Buhari will win a second term are widespread, but they are tinged with the understanding that such an outcome is unlikely. Buhari's hands-off approach and readiness to leave office imply that he is unlikely to seek another term. His political opponents, such as Peter Obi, are seen as viable alternatives who could bring much-needed change to the region and to Africa as a whole.

Constitutional Context

The Nigerian constitution does allow for tenure extensions under special circumstances like ongoing insecurity, but Buhari's inability to turn things around suggests that he would be an unsuitable candidate for such an extension. His eagerness to leave means he is unlikely to accept even a temporary extension.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the likelihood of President Buhari winning a second term is slim, and his aspirations for retirement are well-documented. The country is better off with a new administration that can address the pressing issues of economic stability, infrastructure development, and security. It is a bittersweet reflection that, despite initial support in 2015, many Nigerians now view Buhari as a disappointment, and his departure is met with a mix of relief and hope for a brighter future.